Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complication with high morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery. In order to predict the incidence of AKI after cardiac surgery, many risk prediction models have been established worldwide. We made a detailed introduction to the composing features, clinical application and predictive capability of 14 commonly used models. Among the 14 risk prediction models, age, congestive heart failure, hypertension, left ventricular ejection fraction, diabetes, cardiac valve surgery, coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) combined with cardiac valve surgery, emergency surgery, preoperative creatinine, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), preoperative New York Heart Association (NYHA) score>Ⅱ, previous cardiac surgery, cadiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time and low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS) are included in many risks prediction models (>3 times). In comparison to Mehta and SRI models, Cleveland risk prediction model shows the best discrimination for the prediction of renal replacement therapy (RRT)-AKI and AKI in the European. However, in Chinese population, the predictive ability of the above three risk prediction models for RRT-AKI and AKI is poor.
Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting the occurrence of arrhythmia after esophageal cancer surgery, construct a risk prediction model, and explore its clinical value. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of patients who underwent radical esophagectomy for esophageal cancer in the Department of Thoracic Surgery at Anhui Provincial Hospital from 2020 to 2023. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen potential factors influencing postoperative arrhythmia. A risk prediction model for postoperative arrhythmia was constructed, and a nomogram was drawn. The predictive performance of the model was then validated. Results A total of 601 esophageal cancer patients were randomly divided into a modeling group (421 patients) and a validation group (180 patients) at a 7 : 3 ratio. In the modeling group, patients were further categorized into an arrhythmia group (188 patients, 44.7%) and a non-arrhythmia group (233 patients, 55.3%) based on whether they developed postoperative arrhythmia. Among those with postoperative arrhythmia, 43 (10.2%) patients had atrial fibrillation (AF), 12 (2.9%) patients had atrial premature beats, 15 (3.6%) patients had sinus bradycardia, and 143 (34%) patients had sinus tachycardia. Some patients exhibited multiple arrhythmias, including 14 patients with AF combined with sinus tachycardia, 7 patients with AF combined with atrial premature beats, and 3 patients with AF combined with sinus bradycardia. Univariate analysis revealed that a history of hypertension, heart disease, pulmonary infection, acute respiratory distress syndrome, postoperative hypoxia, anastomotic leakage, and delirium were risk factors for postoperative arrhythmia in esophageal cancer patients (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a history of heart disease, pulmonary infection, and postoperative hypoxia were independent risk factors for postoperative arrhythmia after esophageal cancer surgery (P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the constructed risk prediction model for postoperative arrhythmia was 0.710 [95% CI (0.659, 0.760)], with a sensitivity of 0.617 and a specificity of 0.768. Conclusion A history of heart disease, pulmonary infection, and postoperative hypoxia are independent risk factors for postoperative arrhythmia after esophageal cancer surgery. The risk prediction model constructed in this study can effectively identify high-risk patients for postoperative arrhythmia, providing a basis for personalized interventions.
Objective To investigate the key risk factors for low anterior resection syndrome (LARS) within 6 months after rectal cancer surgery and to construct a risk prediction model based on the random forest algorithm, providing a reference for early clinical intervention. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on patients who underwent rectal cancer surgery at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2020 to August 2021. A prediction model for the occurrence of LARS within 6 months after rectal cancer surgery was constructed using the random forest algorithm. The dataset was divided into a training set and a test set in an 8∶2 ratio. The model performance was evaluated by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results A total of 394 patients were enrolled. Among the 394 patients, 106 developed LARS within 6 months after surgery, with an incidence rate of 26.9%. According to the importance ranking in the random forest algorithm, the key predictive factors were: distance from the inferior tumor margin to the dentate line, body mass index (BMI), tumor size, time to first postoperative flatus, operation time, age, neoadjuvant therapy, and TNM stage. The prediction model constructed using these key factors achieved the accuracy of 73.4%, sensitivity of 75.0%, specificity of 72.7%, AUC (95% confidence interval) of 0.801 (0.685, 0.916), and the Brier score of 0.198. DCA showed that the model provided favorable clinical benefit when the threshold probability was between 25% and 64%. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that patients with a shorter distance from the tumor to the dentate line, higher BMI, and larger tumor size are at higher risk of developing LARS. The risk prediction model constructed in this study demonstrates a good predictive performance and may provide a useful reference for early identification of high-risk patients after rectal cancer surgery.
Objective To explore the risk factors for long-term death of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and develop and validate a prediction model for long-term death. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 1013 patients diagnosed with AMI and reduced LVEF in West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2019. Using the RAND function of Excel software, patients were randomly divided into three groups, two of which were combined for the purpose of establishing the model, and the third group was used for validation of the model. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality, and the follow-up was until January 20th, 2021. Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the risk factors affecting the long-term death, and then a prediction model based on those risk factors was established and validated. Results During a median follow-up of 1377 days, 296 patients died. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age≥65 years [hazard ratio (HR)=1.842, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.067, 3.179), P=0.028], Killip class≥Ⅲ[HR=1.941, 95%CI (1.188, 3.170), P=0.008], N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide≥5598 pg/mL [HR=2.122, 95%CI (1.228, 3.665), P=0.007], no percutaneous coronary intervention [HR=2.181, 95%CI (1.351, 3.524), P=0.001], no use of statins [HR=2.441, 95%CI (1.338, 4.454), P=0.004], and no use of β-blockers [HR=1.671, 95%CI (1.026, 2.720), P=0.039] were independent risk factors for long-term death. The prediction model was established and patients were divided into three risk groups according to the total score, namely low-risk group (0-2), medium-risk group (4-6), and high-risk group (8-12). The results of receiver operating characteristic curve [area under curve (AUC)=0.724, 95%CI (0.680, 0.767), P<0.001], Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=0.108), and Kaplan-Meier survival curve (P<0.001) showed that the prediction model had an efficient prediction ability, and a strong ability in discriminating different groups. The model was also shown to be valid in the validation group [AUC=0.758, 95%CI (0.703, 0.813), P<0.001]. Conclusions In patients with AMI and reduced LVEF, age≥65 years, Killip class≥Ⅲ, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide≥5598 pg/mL, no percutaneous coronary intervention, no use of statins, and no use of β-blockers are independent risk factors for long-term death. The developed risk prediction model based on these risk factors has a strong prediction ability.
Objective To identify risk factors for fibrosis progression and develop a predictive model in patients with usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern on CT. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 453 patients with CT-defined UIP or probable UIP, followed for one year. The study endpoint was either meeting progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) criteria or completing one-year follow-up. Clinical features, pulmonary function, and laboratory data were collected. Independent risk factors were identified using logistic regression. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. A nomogram was constructed in the training cohort using R and its performance and clinical utility were evaluated in the validation cohort. Results During one-year follow-up, 160 patients (35.3%) met PPF criteria. Multivariate analysis showed that higher baseline levels of CA19-9 and CA125, as well as the presence of pulmonary hypertension, were independent risk factors for pulmonary fibrosis progression, while a higher percentage of predicted forced vital capacity (FVC) and the presence of emphysema were protective factors. A nomogram model was constructed using these five variables, with the area under the curve (AUC) for predicting fibrosis progression being 0.854 in the training set and 0.817 in the validation set. Clinical decision curve analysis indicated that the model provided the greatest clinical benefit when the threshold probability was between 0.12 and 0.93. Conclusion A nomogram incorporating baseline CA19-9, CA125, FVC % predicted, pulmonary hypertension, and emphysema shows potential for predicting one-year fibrosis progression in UIP patients.
Objective To construct a risk prediction score model for serious adverse event (SAE) after cardiac catheterization in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) and pulmonary hypertension (PH) and verify its predictive effect. Methods The patients with PH who underwent cardiac catheterization in Wuhan Asian Heart Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology from January 2018 to January 2022 were retrospectively collected. The patients were randomly divided into a model group and a validation group according to the order of admission. The model group was divided into a SAE group and a non-SAE group according to whether SAE occurred after the catheterization. The data of the two groups were compared, and the risk prediction score model was established according to the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis. The discrimination and calibration of the model were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. Results A total of 758 patients were enrolled, including 240 (31.7%) males and 518 (68.3%) females, with a mean age of 43.1 (18.0-81.0) years. There were 530 patients in the model group (47 patients in the SAE group and 483 patients in the non-SAE group) and 228 patients in the validation group. Univariate analysis showed statistical differences in age, smoking history, valvular disease history, heart failure history, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and other factors between the SAE and non-SAE groups (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that age≥50 years, history of heart failure, moderate to severe congenital heart disease, moderate to severe PH, cardiac catheterization and treatment, surgical general anesthesia, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide≥126.65 pg/mL were risk factors for SAE after cardiac catheterization for ACHD-PH patients (P<0.05). The risk prediction score model had a total score of 0-139 points and patients who had a score>50 points were high-risk patients. Model validation results showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.937 (95%CI 0.897-0.976). Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test: χ2=3.847, P=0.797. Conclusion Age≥50 years, history of heart failure, moderate to severe congenital heart disease, moderate to severe PH, cardiac catheterization and treatment, general anesthesia for surgery, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide≥126.65 pg/mL were risk factors for SAE after cardiac catheterization for ACHD-PH patients. The risk prediction model based on these factors has a high predictive value and can be applied to the risk assessment of SAE after interventional therapy in ACHD-PH patients to help clinicians perform early intervention.
ObjectiveTo systematically evaluate the risk prediction model of anastomotic fistula after radical resection of esophageal cancer, and to provide objective basis for selecting a suitable model. MethodsA comprehensive search was conducted on Chinese and English databases including CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, CBM, PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library for relevant studies on the risk prediction model of anastomotic fistula after radical resection of esophageal cancer from inception to April 30, 2023. Two researchers independently screened literatures and extracted data information. PROBAST tool was used to assess the risk of bias and applicability of included literatures. Meta-analysis was performed on the predictive value of common predictors in the model with RevMan 5.3 software. ResultsA total of 18 studies were included, including 11 Chinese literatures and 7 English literatures. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction models ranged from 0.68 to 0.954, and the AUC of 10 models was >0.8, indicating that the prediction performance was good, but the risk of bias in the included studies was high, mainly in the field of research design and data analysis. The results of the meta-analysis on common predictors showed that age, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, C-reactive protein, history of preoperative chemotherapy, hypoproteinemia, peripheral vascular disease, pulmonary infection, and calcification of gastric omental vascular branches are effective predictors for the occurrence of anastomotic leakage after radical surgery for esophageal cancer (P<0.05). ConclusionThe study on the risk prediction model of anastomotic fistula after radical resection of esophageal cancer is still in the development stage. Future studies can refer to the common predictors summarized by this study, and select appropriate methods to develop and verify the anastomotic fistula prediction model in combination with clinical practice, so as to provide targeted preventive measures for patients with high-risk anastomotic fistula as soon as possible.
ObjectiveProlonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) is a prognostic marker for short-term adverse outcomes in patients after lung transplantation.The risk of prolonged mechanical ventilation after lung transplantation is still not clear. The study to identify the risk factors of prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) after lung transplantation.Methods This retrospective observational study recruited patients who underwent lung transplantation in Wuxi People’s Hospital from January 2020 to December 2022. Relevant information was collected from patients and donors, including recipient data (gender, age, BMI, blood type, comorbidities), donor data (age, BMI, time of endotracheal intubation, oxygenation index, history of smoking, and any comorbidity with multidrug-resistant bacterial infections), and surgical data (surgical mode, incision type, operation time, cold ischemia time of the donor lung, intraoperative bleeding, and ECMO support), and postoperative data (multi-resistant bacterial lung infection, multi-resistant bacterial bloodstream infection, and mean arterial pressure on postoperative admission to the monitoring unit). Patients with a duration of mechanical ventilation ≤72 hours were allocated to the non-prolonged mechanical ventilation group, and patients with a duration of mechanical ventilation>72 hours were allocated to the prolonged mechanical ventilation group. LASSO regression analysis was applied to screen risk factors., and a clinical prediction model for the risk of prolonged mechanical ventilation after lung.ResultsPatients who met the inclusion criteria were divided into the training set and the validation set. There were 307 cases in the training set group and 138 cases in the validation set group. The basic characteristics of the training set and the validation set were compared. There were statistically significant differences in the recipient’s BMI, donor’s gender, CRKP of the donor lung swab, whether the recipient had pulmonary infection before the operation, the type of transplantation, the cold ischemia time of the donor lung, whether ECMO was used during the operation, the duration of ECMO assistance, CRKP of sputum, and the CRE index of the recipient's anal test (P<0.05). 2. The results of the multivariate logistic regression model showed that female recipients, preoperative mechanical ventilation in recipients, preoperative pulmonary infection in recipients, intraoperative application of ECMO, and the detection of multi-drug resistant Acinetobacter baumannii, multi-drug resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae and maltoclomonas aeruginosa in postoperative sputum were independent risk factors for prolonged mechanical ventilation after lung transplantation. The AUC of the clinical prediction model in the training set and the validation set was 0.838 and 0.828 respectively, suggesting that the prediction model has good discrimination. In the decision curves of the training set and the validation set, the threshold probabilities of the curves in the range of 0.05-0.98 and 0.02-0.85 were higher than the two extreme lines, indicating that the model has certain clinical validity.ConclusionsFemale patients, Preoperative pulmonary infection, preoperative mechanical ventilation,blood type B, blood type O, application of ECMO assistance, multi-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii infection, multi-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae infection, and multi-resistant Stenotrophomonas maltophilia infection are independent risk factors for PMV (prolonged mechanical ventilation) after lung transplantation.
ObjectiveTo systematically evaluate the risk prediction models for postoperative delirium in adults with cardiac surgery. MethodsThe SinoMed, CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases were searched to collect studies on risk prediction models for postoperative delirium in cardiac surgery published up to January 29, 2025. Two researchers screened the literature according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, used the PROBAST bias tool to assess the quality of the literature, and conducted a meta-analysis of common predictors in the model using Stata 17.0 software. ResultsA total of 21 articles were included, establishing 45 models with 28733 patients. Age, cardiopulmonary bypass time, history of diabetes, history of cerebrovascular disease, and gender were the top five common predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the 45 models ranged from 0.544 to 0.98. Fourteen out of the 21 studies had good applicability, while the applicability of the remaining seven was unclear; 20 studies had a high risk of bias. Meta-analysis showed that the incidence of postoperative delirium in adults with cardiac surgery was 18.6% [95%CI (15.7%, 21.6%)], and age [OR=1.045 (1.036, 1.054), P<0.001], history of cerebrovascular disease [OR=1.758 (1.459, 2.057), P<0.001], gender [OR=1.732 (1.430, 2.034), P<0.001], mini-mental state examination score [OR=3.930 (1.859, 8.309), P<0.001], and length of ICU stay [OR=5.586 (4.289, 6.883), P<0.001] were independent influencing factors for postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery. ConclusionThe risk prediction models for postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery have good predictive performance, but there is a high overall risk of bias. In the future, large-sample, multicenter, high-quality prospective clinical studies should be conducted to construct the optimal risk prediction model for postoperative delirium in adults with cardiac surgery, aiming to identify and prevent the occurrence of postoperative delirium as early as possible.
Objective To explore the risk factors of chronic postoperative inguinal pain (CPIP) after transabdominal preperitoneal hernia repair (TAPP), establish and verify the risk prediction model, and then evaluate the prediction effectiveness of the model. Methods The clinical data of 362 patients who received TAPP surgery was retrospectively analyzed and divided into model group (n=300) and validation group (n=62). The risk factors of CPIP in the model group were screened by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the risk prediction model was established and tested. Results The incidence of CPIP at 6 months after operation was 27.9% (101/362). Univariate analysis showed that gender (χ2= 12.055, P=0.001), age (t=–4.566, P<0.01), preoperative pain (χ2=44.686, P<0.01) and early pain at 1 week after operation (χ2=150.795, P<0.01) were related to CPIP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, preoperative pain, early pain at 1 week after operation, and history of lower abdominal surgery were independent risk predictors of CPIP. The area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of the risk prediction model was calculated to be 0.933 [95%CI (0.898, 0.967)], and the optimal cut-off value was 0.129, while corresponding specificity and sensitivity were 87.6% and 91.5% respectively. The prediction accuracy, specificity and sensitivity of the model were 91.9% (57/62), 90.7% and 94.7%, respectively when the validation group data were substituted into the prediction model. Conclusion Female, age≤64 years old, preoperative pain, early pain at 1 week after operation and without history of lower abdominal surgery are independent risk factors for the incidence of CPIP after TAPP, and the risk prediction model established on this basis has good predictive efficacy, which can further guide the clinical practice.