ObjectiveTo investigate the relationship between the red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and the severity of acute exacerbation of bronchiectasis in elderly patients.MethodsThe clinical data of 216 elderly patients with acute exacerbation of bronchiectasis admitted from January 2015 to October of 2018 were analyzed retrospectively. The severity of acute exacerbation of bronchiectasis in the elderly was evaluated by bronchiectasis severity index (BSI) score. Meanwhile, 50 elderly people receiving qualified medical examination were collected as a healthy control group in the same period. The distributions of BSI score, RDW, procalcitonin (PCT), neutrophil percentage (NEU%) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were described in the patients with different risk degree. The severity of acute exacerbation of bronchiectasis in the elderly was evaluated by BSI. The patients were divided into three groups by BSI score: a low risk group, a middle risk group, and a high risk group. The indexes were described including the distribution of stratified BSI score, RDW, PCT, NEU%, CRP at different risk levels. The correlation of each index was analyzed by Spearman correlation. The threshold value of RDW was calculated by general linear regression, and the influencing factors of BSI score were analyzed by multivariate linear regression analysis.ResultsThe higher the risk stratification, the higher the BSI score, RDW, PCT, NEU% and CRP were. RDW was positively correlated with PCT, NEU% and CRP (r values were 0.425, 0.311, 0.177, respectively, P<0.05). BSI score was positively correlated with RDW, PCT, NEU%, and CRP (r values were 0.425, 0.394, 0.650, 0.578, respectively, P<0.05). RDW was positively correlated with PSI score (r=0.425, P<0.05). The thresholds of RDW were 11.45% and 14.03%. Multiple linear regression showed that RDW, PCT, NEU% and CRP were all influential factors of BSI score and explained 52.3% of the total mutation rate.ConclusionRDW is related to the severity of acute exacerbation of bronchiectasis in the elderly, and can predict the severity of acute exacerbation of bronchiectasis in the elderly.
ObjectiveTo investigate diagnostic and prognostic value of pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI), troponin I (cTnI) and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE). MethodsA total of 96 patients confirmed with APE were collected from January 2010 to January 2013, and 50 cases of non-APE controls were also selected in the same period. According to the PESI scores, patients were divided into low-risk, mid-risk, and highrisk group. According to the results of cTnI and BNP, patients were divided into positive group and negative group. Then, we evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic value of the PESI score, cTnI and BNP for patients with APE. ResultsFor the APE patients, the higher the risk was, the higher the constituent ratio of massive and sub-massive APE was (P<0.01). In the cTnI positive group, massive and sub-massive APE accounted for 82.9%, and in the cTnI negative group, non-massive APE was up to 81.9%; in the BNP positive group, massive and sub-massive APE accounted for 73.3%, and in the BNP negative group, non-massive APE was up to 86.3%. The patients with positive cTnI and BNP had a higher rate of right ventricular dysfunction, cardiogenic shock and mortality than the negative group (P<0.01). ConclusionThe combined detection of cTnI, BNP and PESI score is important in the diagnosis and risk stratification in APE patients.
ObjectiveTo discuss the risk factors of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in patients with severe pneumonia.MethodsData of 80 patients with severe pneumonia admitted in our ICU were analyzed retrospectively, and they were divided into two groups according to development of ARDS, which was defined according to the Berlin new definition. The age, gender, weight, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health EvaluationⅡscore, lactate, PSI score and LIPS score, etc. were collected. Statistical significance results were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis after univariate analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to analyze the predictive value of the parameter for ARDS after severe pneumonia.ResultsForty patients with severe pneumonia progressed to ARDS, there were 4 moderate cases and 36 severe cases according to diagnostic criteria. Univariate analysis showed that procalcitonin (t=4.08, P<0.001), PSI score (t=10.67, P<0.001), LIPS score (t=5.14, P<0.001), shock (χ2=11.11, P<0.001), albumin level (t=3.34, P=0.001) were related to ARDS. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that LIPS ［odds ratio (OR) 0.226, 95%CI=4.62-5.53, P=0.013］ and PSI (OR=0.854, 95%CI=132.2-145.5, P=0.014) were independent risk factors for ARDS. The predictive value of LIPS and PSI in ARDS occurrence was significant. The area under ROC curve (AUC) of LIPS was 0.901, the cut-off value was 7.2, when LIPS ≥7.2, the sensitivity and specificity were both 85.0%. AUC of PSI was 0.947, the cut-off value was 150.5, when PSI score ≥150.5, the sensitivity and specificity were 87.5% and 90.0% respectively.ConclusionsPSI and LIPS are independent risk factors of ARDS in patients with severe pneumonia, which may be references for guiding clinicians to make an early diagnosis and treatment plan.
Objective To investigate the values of pneumonia severity index ( PSI) , CURB-65,plasma procalcitonin ( PCT) , C-reactive protein ( CRP) measurements for evaluation the severity of healthcare-associated pneumonia ( HCAP) .Methods A retrospective observational study was conducted on 92 hospitalized patients with HCAP admitted between June 2010 and December 2011. They were divided into different groups according to different severity assessment criteria. The variance and correlation of PCT,CRP,WBC and percent of neutrophil ( Neu% ) levels were compared among different groups. ROC curvewas established to analyze PSI, CURB-65, PCT and CRP levels for predicting the motality of HCAP patients.Results In the severe HCAP group, PSI and CURB-65 scoring and serum PCT, CRP, WBC, Neu% levels were significantly higher than those in the non-severe HCAP group( P lt; 0. 05) . In the high-risk HCAP group, PCT, CRP, WBC and Neu% levels were significantly higher than those in the low-risk HCAP group according to the PSI and CURB-65 scoring criteria( P lt;0. 05) .WBC and Neu% levels were also significantly higher than those in the moderate-risk group. PSI and CURB-65 scoring were positively correlated with PCT and CRP levels. PSI scoring gt;120 points or CURB-65 scoring gt;2 points on admission were predictors of mortality. Conclusions PSI and CURB-65 scoring are correlated with severity of HCAP. Combining serum PCT and CRP levels can improve the predictive accuracy of the severity of HCAP.
ObjectivesTo compare the efficacy of acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHEⅡ), national early warning score (NEWS), pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI) and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) on pulmonary embolism (PE) prognosis.MethodsClinical data of patients with PE treated in The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from 2010 to 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into death group and survival group, and four clinical scores were calculated. The differences of risk factors between the two groups were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to obtain the independent risk factors related to mortality. The ROC working curve was used to compare the capability of four clinical scores for PE mortality. SPSS 24.0 and Medcalc 18.2.1 software were used for statistical analysis. ResultsA total of 318 patients with PE were included, and the mortality rate was 13.2%. The APACHEⅡ, NEWS, PESI and CCI of the death group were higher than those of the survival group. There were significant differences between two groups (P<0.05). It was confirmed by logistic regression analysis that cerebrovascular disease, heart rate, leukocyte, troponin T, arterial partial pressure of oxygen, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) were independent risk factors for 90-day mortality. The areas under the ROC curve of APACHEⅡ, CCI, PESI, NEWS were 0.886, 0.728, 0.715 and 0.731, respectively. The area under the ROC curve of APACHEⅡ was the largest, which was better than NEWS, CCI and PESI (P<0.05), and there was no significant difference among NEWS, CCI and PESI.ConclusionsAPACHEⅡ may be the best predictor of mortality in PE patients, which is superior to NEWS, CCI and PESI.
ObjectiveTo explore the risk factors which affect the severity of acute pancreatitis by using machine learning algorithms. MethodsA retrospective review was conducted of medical records from 262 patients hospitalized for acute pancreatitis at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between October 2022 and February 2024. Patients were classified according to the revised edition Atlanta Classification into mild cases (n=146) and non-mild cases (n=116). LASSO analysis was employed to identify predictors for non-mild acute pancreatitis. Six machine learning algorithms, including extreme gradient boosting, random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, support vector machine, and K-nearest neighbors were integrated to construct predictive models. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the following metrics: area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1 score, calibration curves, and decision curves. ResultsThrough LASSO regression analysis, six feature variables, including heart rate, white blood cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, albumin, and calcium ion were selected to train and test machine learning models. Results showed that extreme gradient boosting achieved the highest AUC value of 0.93 on the test set, making it the optimal model. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, Brier score, and F1 score of the extreme gradient boosting model were 0.97, 0.70, 0.85, 0.108, and 0.84. ConclusionThe prediction model developed using extreme gradient boosting has high clinical utility value, helps to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis at an early stage and is valuable in guiding clinical decision-making.
ObjectiveTo compare the value of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHEⅡ) scores, the pneumonia severity index (PSI) scores), the CURB-65 scores, and serum procalcitonin (PCT) concentration in prediction of prognosis for inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and discuss the influence factors.MethodsRetrospective analysis was conducted based on the APACHEⅡ scores, the CURB-65 scores, the PSI scores and PCT concentration of hospitalized CAP patients admitted in the Department of Respiratory Medicine of First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University between January 2015 and December 2016, and within 24 hours of their admission. The end point of this study was the clinical outcome of hospitalization (recovery, improvement, exacerbation or death). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and binary logistic regression models were used to assess the ability of prognostic evaluation and determine the boundary value, to screen risk factors that influence deterioration and death in CAP patients.ResultsTwo hundred and thirty-five CAP patients were enrolled with 146 males and 89 females at an average age of (60.4±18.1) years old. All patients were divided into 2 groups: improving recovery group had 205 cases, and deteriorating group had 30 cases. The rank of areas under the ROC curve for predicting the deterioration and death risk of CAP, from big to small were APACHEⅡ(0.889), PSI (0.850), CURB-65 (0.789), and PCT (0.720). APACHEⅡ score over 11 points and PSI score over 91 points were optimal cut-off values for the prognostic assessment. Moreover, the logistic regression analysis revealed that APACHEⅡ score and PCT were independent risk factors of deterioration and death in CAP patients.ConclusionsThe better predictability of clinic outcome of CAP is APACHEⅡ score, PSI score, CURB-65 score, and PCT respectively in order, while the APACHEⅡ score and PCT concentration were independent risk factors for exacerbation and mortality in CAP patients. The predictive ability of a single PCT measurement is limited. The combination of APACHEⅡ score and PCT may increase specificity, but reduce sensitivity.
ObjectiveTo evaluate the predictive value of the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE). MethodsIn a retrospective cohort study,272 consecutive patients with APE were reviewed and the 30-days death and in-hospital adverse events were evaluated. The patients were classified according to hs-cTnI value into a high hs-cTnI group and a low hs-cTnI group. The simple pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) was used for clinical risk determination. The adverse event was defined as intravenous thrombolytic therapy,noninvasive ventilator support to maintain oxygen saturation >90% and suffered with severe complications. The correlations of hs-cTnI with sPESI score,30-days adverse events and mortality were analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test were used to compare time-to-event survival. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis models were used to determine the incremental prognostic value of sPESI score and hs-cTnI. ResultsThe incidence of 30-day death (6.1%),renal failure (14.6%),bleeding (13.4%) and thrombolytic therapy (7.9%) were higher in the high hs-cTnI group than those in the low hs-cTnI group (P values were 0.009,<0.001,0.018 and 0.003,respectively). The patients with sPESI ≥1 and low hs-cTnI had greater free adverse events survival (P=0.005). hs-cTnI provided incremental predictive value for in-hospital adverse events,beyond the sPESI score (P<0.001). Conclusionhs-cTnI has excellent negative predictive value of APE prognosis,especially when used combined with sPESI score.
ObjectiveTo investigate the disease severity and comorbidities in outpatient with asthma from urban area in China.MethodsA face-to-face, questionnaire-based survey was carried out in outpatient department in 30 general hospitals from 30 provinces in China mainland except for Tibet during October 2015 to May 2016, and asthma patients who meet the including criteria were enrolled. Data of demographic characteristics, smoking status, disease severity, and comorbidities were collected.ResultsA total of 3 875 cases were included. According to GINA criteria, the proportion of diseases severity was as following: intermittent status 52.5% (2 033/3 875), mild persistent 24.5% (951/3 875), moderate persistent 16.9% (656/3 875), and severe persistent 6.1% (235/3 875). The overweight rate was 32.9% (1 274/3 875), the rate of obesity was 10.3% (401/3 875), and the smoking rate was 20.1% (777/3 875). Obesity and smoking were related to poor asthma control. 75.9% (2 941/3 875) of the patients had comorbidities: allergic rhinitis 43.4% (1682/3 875), hypertension 16.4% (634/3 875), nasosinusitis 8.7% (338/3 875), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 7.3% (283/3 875), bronchiectasis 3.0% (118/3 875), and rhinopolypus 2.9% (114/3 875).ConclusionsThe majority of asthma patients from outpatient department are mild asthma patients. The proportion of allergic rhinitis and bronchiectasis in asthma patients is higher than mean level. Asthma patients with comorbidities of obesity and smoking is related to poor asthma control.
ObjiectiveTo obtain reliable evidence of diagnosis and treatment through evaluating the validity of pneumonia severity index (PSI), CURB-65 and acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) scores in predicting risk stratification, severity evaluation and prognosis in elderly community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients.MethodsClinical and demographic data were collected and retrospectively analyzed in 125 in-hospital patients with CAP admitted in Shanghai Dahua Hospital from January 2012 to April 2015. The severity of pneumonia was calculated with PSI, CURB-65 and APACHEⅡgroups during 1 to 3 days after admission. Mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates were evaluated among patients in each scores and was categorized into three classes, namely mild, moderate and severe groups during 1 to 3 days after admission. Mortality and ICU admission rates were evaluated among patients in each severity level. Through evaluating the sensitivity, specificity, the predicting values and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) among PSI, CURB-65 and APACHEⅡ, the validity and consistency of these three scoring systems were assessed.ResultsUsing PSI, CURB-65 and APACHEⅡ scoring systems, the patients were categorized into mild severity (48.8%, 64.0% and 52.8%, respectively), moderate severity (37.6%, 23.2% and 32.0%, respectively) and severe severity (13.6%, 12.8% and 15.2%, respectively). In PSI, CURB-65 and APACHEⅡ systems, the mortality in high risk groups was 41.3%, 62.5% and 47.4%, respectively; The ICU-admission rate in high risk groups was 88.3%, 100.0% and 94.7%, respectively. The sensitivity of PSI, CURB-65 and APACHEⅡ was 50.0%, 71.4% and 64.3% in predicting mortality, and was 46.8%, 50.0% and 59.3% in predicting ICU-admission, respectively. PSI, CURB-65 and APACHEⅡ showed similar specificity (approximately 90%) in predicting mortality and ICU admission. ROC was conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of PSI, APACHEⅡ and CURB-65 in predicting mortality and ICU admission. The AUC had no significant difference among these three scoring systems. The AUC of PSI, CURB-65 and APACHEⅡwas 0.893, 0.871, 0.880, respectively for predicting mortality, and was 0.949, 0.837, 0.949, respectively for predicting ICU admission. There was no significant difference among these three scoring in predicting mortality and ICU admission (all P>0.05).ConclusionsPSI, CURB-65 and APACHEⅡ performed similarly and achieved high predictive values in elderly patients with CAP. The three scoring systems are consistent in predicting mortality risk in elderly CAP patients. The CURB-65 is more sensitive in predicting the risk of death, and more early in identifing patients with high risk of death. The APACHEⅡ is more sensitive in predicting the risk of ICU admission, and has good value in identifying severe patients and choosing the right treatment sites.