ObjectiveTo compare the value of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHEⅡ) scores, the pneumonia severity index (PSI) scores), the CURB-65 scores, and serum procalcitonin (PCT) concentration in prediction of prognosis for inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and discuss the influence factors.MethodsRetrospective analysis was conducted based on the APACHEⅡ scores, the CURB-65 scores, the PSI scores and PCT concentration of hospitalized CAP patients admitted in the Department of Respiratory Medicine of First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University between January 2015 and December 2016, and within 24 hours of their admission. The end point of this study was the clinical outcome of hospitalization (recovery, improvement, exacerbation or death). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and binary logistic regression models were used to assess the ability of prognostic evaluation and determine the boundary value, to screen risk factors that influence deterioration and death in CAP patients.ResultsTwo hundred and thirty-five CAP patients were enrolled with 146 males and 89 females at an average age of (60.4±18.1) years old. All patients were divided into 2 groups: improving recovery group had 205 cases, and deteriorating group had 30 cases. The rank of areas under the ROC curve for predicting the deterioration and death risk of CAP, from big to small were APACHEⅡ(0.889), PSI (0.850), CURB-65 (0.789), and PCT (0.720). APACHEⅡ score over 11 points and PSI score over 91 points were optimal cut-off values for the prognostic assessment. Moreover, the logistic regression analysis revealed that APACHEⅡ score and PCT were independent risk factors of deterioration and death in CAP patients.ConclusionsThe better predictability of clinic outcome of CAP is APACHEⅡ score, PSI score, CURB-65 score, and PCT respectively in order, while the APACHEⅡ score and PCT concentration were independent risk factors for exacerbation and mortality in CAP patients. The predictive ability of a single PCT measurement is limited. The combination of APACHEⅡ score and PCT may increase specificity, but reduce sensitivity.
Objective To investigate the value of procalcitonin (PCT) at admission for severity stratificaton and prognosis prediction of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and assess the ability of the combination of PCT and the validated pneumonia risk scores (PSI and CURB-65) for predicting 30-day mortality. Methods A retrospective study was performed in 150 hospitalized CAP patients admitted in the Department of Respiratory Medicine of General Hospital of Tianjin Medical University between March 2015 and March 2016. The primary end point for this study was mortality within 30 days. Sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), positive and negative predictive value (PPV, NPV) of PCT for assessing mortality was calculated and compared to validated pneumonia risk scores. Results In the 150 CAP patients enrolled, there were 77 males and 73 females with an average age of 58.4±16.3 years. Twelve (8%) patients died within 30 days. The non-survivors had significantly higher median PCT level (4.25 ng/mlvs. 0.24 ng/ml) and C-reactive protein (CRP) level (14.60 mg/dlvs. 5.10 mg/dl) compared with the survivors. The median PCT level was significantly higher in the patients with more severe disease assessed by two risk scoring systems. Combination of PCT with risk scores can improve prognostic value for predicting 30-day mortality of CAP. Conclusions The level of PCT at admission is more useful than the traditional biomarkers for the severity stratification and prognosis prediction of CAP. It can well determine patients at low risk of mortality from CAP. There is no advantage of PCT compared to PSI or CURB-65, so we recommend combination of PCT to risk sores to predict 30-day mortality of CAP.
Objective To evaluate the prognostic values of CURB-65 score and inflammatory factors in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods A retrospective study was conducted in hospitalized adult CAP patients in West China Hospital between January 1st, and December 31th, 2013. Data of CURB-65 score and serum levels of inflammatory factors (WBC, ESR, PCT, CRP, IL-6 and ALB) on admission and clinical outcomes were collected. The associations between CURB-65 score, inflammatory factors and clinical outcomes were examined. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop combined models to predict in-hospital death of CAP patients, and ROC analysis was conducted to measure and compare the prognostic values of CURB-65 score, inflammatory factors or combined models. Results A total of 505 hospitalized CAP patients were included. 81 patients died during the hospitalization and the in-hospital mortality rate was 16.0%. Possible risk factors of in-hospital death included old age, male sex, hypertension, cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases, multi-lobular pneumonic infiltration, high risk scores, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation and severe pneumonia (all P values<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that CURB-65 score, ALB and IL-6 were the independent factors in predicting in-hospital death of CAP patients and the area under curve (AUC) of them while predicting in-hospital death were 0.75 (95%CI 0.69 to 0.81), 0.75 (95%CI 0.69 to 0.81) and 0.75 (95%CI 0.69 to 0.80), respectively. ROC analysis found that ALB and IL-6 could improve the AUC of CURB-65 score significantly while predicting the in-hospital death (P<0.05). When ALB and IL-6 were added to the CURB-65 score simultaneously, the AUC was improved to 0.84 (95%CI 0.80 to 0.87). When IL-6 or ALB was added to the CURB-65 score to form a new scale, the AUC of the new scale was significantly higher than that of the CURB-65 score in predicting in-hospital death (P<0.001). Conclusion The prognostic values of CURB-65 score and inflammatory factors may be not ideal when they are used alone in hospitalized CAP patients. IL-6 and ALB may significantly improve the prognostic value of CURB-65 score in predicting in-hospital death.
ObjectiveTo observe and analyze the subfoveal choroidal thickness (SFCT), large choroidal vessel layer thickness (LCVT), and their early changes, and to evaluate their prognostic value for treatment outcomes in eyes with polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV) receiving anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy. MethodsA retrospective clinical study. A total of 120 patients (120 eyes) with unilateral PCV diagnosed and confirmed at Tangshan Eye Hospital from January 2020 to August 2024 were included. All affected eyes received intravitreal anti-VEGF injections. SFCT and LCVT were measured using swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) before treatment and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment. Based on the 12-month follow-up outcomes, the eyes were divided into a good prognosis group (69 eyes) and a poor prognosis group (51 eyes). Subretinal fluid (SRF) absorption was assessed by SS-OCT at 1 month after the first treatment (early stage). Repeated measures ANOVA was used to compare the dynamic changes of SFCT and LCVT between the two groups. Binary logistic regression, joint modeling, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and mediation analysis were used to evaluate the predictive value of SFCT and LCVT for prognosis. ResultsCompared with the good prognosis group, the poor prognosis group had significantly greater disease duration, best-corrected visual acuity, branching vascular network area, maximum linear lesion distance, proportion of choroidal vascular hyperpermeability, pigment epithelial detachment height, and pre-treatment SFCT and LCVT (P＜0.05). The good prognosis group had significantly lower SRF height (SRFH) before treatment and at 1 month after treatment, and a greater reduction in SRFH (ΔSRFH) within the first month, compared with the poor prognosis group (P＜0.05). At 1 month after treatment, complete SRF absorption was observed in 65 eyes (94.20%, 65/69) in the good prognosis group and 32 eyes (62.75%, 32/51) in the poor prognosis group; the complete SRF absorption rate was significantly higher in the good prognosis group (χ2=18.731, P＜0.001). Repeated measures ANOVA showed that SFCT and LCVT significantly decreased after treatment at different time points in both groups (P＜0.05); at each post-treatment time point, SFCT and LCVT were significantly higher in the poor prognosis group than in the good prognosis group (P＜0.05). Cohen's d effect size analysis showed that the intergroup difference in LCVT was greater than that in SFCT. ROC curve analysis showed that pre-treatment SFCT and LCVT effectively predicted early complete SRF absorption, and LCVT had significantly better diagnostic performance than SFCT [area under the ROC curve (AUC)=0.82, 0.76; P=0.025]. Joint modeling analysis showed that longitudinal changes in SFCT and LCVT were significantly associated with the risk of poor prognosis (P＜0.01); for every 50 μm increase in LCVT and SFCT, the relative risk of poor prognosis was 1.615 and 1.512, respectively. The Akaike information criterion value of the LCVT joint model (3 719.42) was lower than that of the SFCT model (3 852.67). At 1 month after treatment, ΔLCVT and ΔSFCT were both significant predictors of poor prognosis; in all adjusted models, the odds ratio of ΔLCVT was lower than that of ΔSFCT, indicating better predictive value. ROC curve analysis showed that both ΔSFCT and ΔLCVT had significant predictive value for poor prognosis, and ΔLCVT had significantly better predictive performance than ΔSFCT (AUC=0.81, 0.74). DCA showed that both ΔSFCT and ΔLCVT provided clinical net benefit, with ΔLCVT showing higher benefit. Mediation analysis showed that ΔLCVT and ΔSFCT partially improved prognosis by promoting early SRF absorption, with the indirect effect of ΔLCVT (39.35%) being higher than that of ΔSFCT (32.70%). ConclusionsBoth SFCT and LCVT can serve as predictors of prognosis in PCV eyes treated with anti-VEGF therapy. After controlling for the effect of SFCT, LCVT maintains independent predictive value, and its predictive efficacy is superior to that of SFCT.