Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 2001 to 2021, and provide scientific evidence for optimizing public health intervention strategies. Methods Data were derived from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD 2021) database, extracting indicators including incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate, and years of life lost (YLL) rate for esophageal cancer in China. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to assess long-term trends in disease burden across genders and age groups, combined with age-standardization using the GBD world standard population. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, and Excel 2019 was used for data collation and descriptive statistics. Results In 2021, the crude incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in China were 22.55, 38.37, and 20.26 per 100 000 population, respectively, representing increases of 13.49%, 23.41%, and 1.30% compared to 2001. The DALY and YLL rates were 450.14 and 436.29 per 100 000, decreasing by 18.01% and 16.10% over the same period. Significant gender disparities were observed, with males exhibiting higher age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALY, and YLL rates than females. In 2021, the male age-standardized incidence (34.29/100 000) and mortality (31.06/100 000) rates were 3.3 and 3.5 times those of females, respectively. Disease burden increased exponentially with age, peaking in the 70 to 74-year-old group for incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates, with males showing significantly higher values than females. Trend analysis of standardized rates revealed significant declines from 2001 to 2021, with AAPC values of ?2.03% for incidence, ?1.42% for prevalence, ?2.57% for mortality, and ?2.84% for DALY rate (all P<0.05). Conclusion The age-standardized disease burden of esophageal cancer in China has decreased over the past two decades, while crude rates have continued to rise, with a pronounced burden among males and older populations. Against the backdrop of accelerating population aging, targeted early screening, behavioral interventions, and optimized resource allocation are imperative to address the challenges in preventing and controlling esophageal cancer.
ObjectiveTo comprehensively analyze the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict the trend of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031, in order to improve its prevention and treatment strategies. MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were extracted and analyzed for the disease burden of nasopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, and tracheal, bronchial and lung cancers (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer) in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software was utilized to analyze the corresponding trends. The grey prediction model [GM (1,1)] was employed to forecast the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 2022 to 2031. ResultsThe disease burden of respiratory cancers attributed to tobacco and occupational carcinogens in China raised from 1990 to 2021. Among the respiratory cancers, lung cancer led in terms of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and their respective age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021, followed by nasopharyngeal cancer, with laryngeal cancer being the lowest. Analysis via the Joinpoint regression model indicated that, overall, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers in China decreased during this time period, while that of lung cancer increased. From a gender perspective, the disease burden of male patients was significantly higher than that of female patients from 1990 to 2021. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China from 1990 to 2021 was still relatively heavy. As of 2021, the middle-aged and elderly population above 50 years old was the primary group suffering from the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China. The prediction model showed that the age-standardized rate of nasopharyngeal cancer in China would decline from 2022 to 2031; the age-standardized incidence rate of laryngeal cancer in China would increase, while its age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate would both decrease; the age-standardized rates of lung cancer in China would increase. ConclusionIn the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancers in China has lightened, but the overall disease burden of lung cancer is still on the rise. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China is still relatively heavy. The disease burden in male patients is significantly higher than that in female patients, and the population above 50 years old is the main group suffering from the disease burden. In the next 10 years, the disease burden of respiratory cancers in China will still tend to increase. Therefore, targeted prevention and treatment strategies for men and the middle-aged and elderly populations remain key challenges that urgently need to be addressed in China's response to respiratory cancers.
Objective To analyze trends in the disease burden of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (TBL) in China and in low, medium, and high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries and regions from 1990 to 2021, with the aim of providing a basis for developing targeted prevention and control strategies. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we extracted TBL-related data for different genders, age groups, and years from 1990 to 2021. The dominant factors contributing to the disease burden and the relationship between DALYs and SDI were analyzed. Results In 2021, China's overall TBL burden was significantly higher than other groups, with substantially greater increases in the number of cases, deaths, and DALYs compared to other groups. The growth rates of ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR also exceeded the overall levels of other SDI countries.The ASPR for all grouped TBLs showed an overall trend of increasing followed by decreasing with age. However, the ASPR for Chinese and middle-SDI male groups exhibited a downward trend in the age range 80-84 years old. Decomposition analysis revealed that the dominant factors for the increase in disease burden of TBL in each group are different. The growth DALYs in China and middle-SDI countries were primarily driven by population aging, while low-SDI countries were mainly influenced by population growth and high-SDI countries were predominantly affected by epidemiological changes. Global health inequalities in TBL have improved, yet low-SDI countries continue to bear a disproportionately heavy health burden. Conclusion The burden of TBL disease in China has steadily increased from 1990 to 2021, currently ranking among the highest globally. Multiple factors, primarily driven by population aging, continue to exacerbate China's TBL burden. The TBL disease burden is influenced by aging, gender differences, and SDI levels. China and low- middle SDI countries should implement targeted intervention strategies based on epidemiological research, including expanding public health service investments and strengthening healthcare system development, to alleviate the increasingly heavy TBL burden.
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden and development trend of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in China from 1990 to 2019. MethodsThe changes of incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and their corresponding age-normalization rates for NHL were analyzed by using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Database. Regression analysis was performed by Joinpoint software to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of standardized morbidity, standardized mortality, standardized DALY rate to reflect the change trend of disease burden. And the results were compared with global data. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of NHL in China showed an overall increasing trend. Compared with 2019, the standard incidence rate, standard mortality rate and standard DALY rate of NHL in China increased by 144.72%, 27.17% and 15.61%, respectively. The annual rates of change were 3.12%, 0.80% and 0.51%, respectively. There were gender and age differences in disease burden. The burden of disease increased with age, and the burden of disease was higher in males than in females. ConclusionThe disease burden of NHL in China shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. With the development of diagnosis and treatment options, the disease burden has decreased in recent years, but it is still higher than the global level. There is still a need to strengthen research on its pathogenesis and treatment options, and to actively intervene in high-risk groups to reduce the disease burden of NHL.
Objective To integrate and analyze the disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019, along with the differences between genders, and predict the trends in disease burden changes from 2020 to 2029 to improve prevention and treatment strategies. Methods The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 was extracted and integrated from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and the corresponding trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model with Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. The gray prediction model [GM (1, 1) ] was used to forecast the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China from 2020 to 2029. Results In 2019, the leading causes of esophageal cancer in China were tobacco, alcohol, high body mass index, and insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, accounting for the first to fifth positions in esophageal cancer deaths. From a gender perspective, in 2019, the death number and standardized mortality rate for males were 18.97 times and 20.00 times higher than for females, respectively. The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and standardized DALYs rate for males were 33.08 times and 24.78 times higher than those for females, respectively, indicating a heavier disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer among Chinese males. From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in deaths and DALYs due to alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China was 2.08% and 1.63%, respectively, showing a continuous upward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The AAPC values for standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2019 were –0.92% and –1.23%, respectively, showing a continuous downward trend with statistical significance (P<0.05). The population aged ≥55 years was the main group bearing the disease burden among all age groups from 1990 to 2019. The gray prediction model predicted that by 2029, the overall standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate would decrease to 2.94/100 000and 67.94/100 000, with a greater decline in females than in males. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China has slightly decreased. However, the reduction in disease burden is still lower compared to the overall decline in esophageal cancer burden, and the disease burden for males is significantly higher than for females. Focusing on prevention and treatment for males and the elderly population remains a major issue in addressing alcohol-related esophageal cancer in China.
ObjectiveTo systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and epidemiological trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) disease burden attributed to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021, and to assess the patterns of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031 based on predictive models, providing a scientific basis for formulating targeted TBL prevention and control strategies. MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analyzed the disease burden data of TBL attributed to air pollution globally and in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021. R Studio 4.3.2 software was used to analyze the corresponding trends and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model was used to predict the status of the disease burden of TBL attributed to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States from 2022 to 2031. ResultsIn 2021, China had the highest number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributed to air pollution (211 400 patients and 4.8947 million person-years), followed by the United States (6 000 patients and 124 300 person-years). The age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of TBL due to air pollution in the world and in China and the United States showed a decreasing trend. From 1990 to 2021, the ASMR and ASDR of TBL in China due to air pollution were much higher than those in the United States and the global average. In terms of gender, from 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of male patients with TBL attributed to air pollution was much higher than that of female patients. The BAPC prediction model showed that from 2022 to 2031, the ASMR and ASDR of TBL attributed to air pollution showed an upward trend globally, while they showed a downward trend in China and the United States. ConclusionOver the past 30 years, the air pollution-related TBL disease burden in the world and in China and the United States has continued to decline, but China's disease burden is still significantly higher than the global average. The disease burden in men far exceeds that in women, with men and the population aged ≥50 years being high-risk groups. In the future, the global disease trend may reverse and rise, while China and the United States are expected to continuously decline. However, precise prevention and control for high-risk groups remains a key challenge.
ObjectiveTo analyze the gender-specific distribution patterns of the disease burden of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (hereinafter referred to as lung cancer) attributed to tobacco from 1990 to 2021 globally and in China and the United States (US), and to predict the trend of disease burden changes from 2022 to 2031, aiming to provide multi-dimensional evidence-based support for optimizing tobacco control strategies and precise lung cancer prevention and control systems. MethodsData on the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco from 1990 to 2021 globally and in China and the US were extracted and integrated from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. The Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software was used to analyze the corresponding trends in disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction model was employed to forecast the disease burden of lung cancer from 2022 to 2031. ResultsIn 2021, China had the highest number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to lung cancer attributed to tobacco, followed by the US. The top three risk factors for lung cancer globally and in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 were tobacco, air pollution, and occupational risks. The disease burden of lung cancer patients attributed to tobacco has been decreasing year by year in the global and US populations [the average annual percentage change (AAPC) values of age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs rate were: globally: ?0.96%, ?1.28%; US: ?2.33%, ?2.72%], while it has been increasing in China (the AAPC values of age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs rate were 0.28% and ?0.02%, respectively). From a gender perspective, the disease burden of male patients with lung cancer attributed to tobacco was much higher than that of female patients from 1990 to 2021. Compared to the global average, the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 was still heavy, with China’s burden being higher than that of the US. The elderly population aged ≥65 years in the global context and in China and the US was the primary group affected by the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco. The BAPC prediction model indicated that from 2022 to 2031, the age-standardized rates of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in the global context and in China and the US would show a declining trend. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of lung cancer attributed to tobacco in China and the US was still heavy compared to the global average, with China’s burden being significantly higher than that of the US. The focus on prevention and control for both countries remains among the middle-aged and elderly population (especially males), which is a key challenge for tobacco-related lung cancer prevention and treatment work in the next 10 years.
Objective To analyze the disease burden and trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021, in order to provide reference for the prevention and control of TBL in China. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease database 2021, with occupational carcinogens as relevant risk factors and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer as the study diseases, data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted and age-standardized. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Hiplot was used to visualize the distribution of disease burden by gender and age. The grey model GM (1, 1) was used to predict the disease burden and trends of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 2022 to 2031. Results From 1990 to 2021, the overall mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China increased from 1.85/100 000,53.93/100 000, 2.64/100 000, and 69.50/100 000 in 1990 to 5.22/100 000, 129.29/100 000, 3.49/100 000, and 83.80/100 000in 2021, respectively. The growth rates were 182.16%, 139.74%, 32.20%, and 20.58%, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the AAPC values of overall mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 1990 to 2021 were 3.41%, 2.87%, 0.92%, and 0.62%, respectively (all P<0.001), showing an overall upward trend, with higher values in females than in males. In 2021, the overall mortality rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China gradually increased with age, with high mortality rates mainly concentrated in those aged ≥65 years, and higher rates in males than in females. The overall DALYs rate showed a trend of increasing first and then slowly decreasing with age, peaking at 65-69 years old, with higher rates in males than in females. The grey prediction model GM (1, 1) showed that the predicted values of mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China from 2022 to 2031 all showed an upward trend. By 2031, the predicted values of mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate will reach 7.19/100 000, 175.63/100 000, 4.16/100 000, and 93.64/100 000, respectively. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the mortality rate, DALYs rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China all showed an upward trend. Males and the elderly are the main populations affected by the disease burden of TBL attributable to occupational carcinogens in China. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of occupational carcinogens and promote health education.
ObjectiveTo analyze the prevalence of muscle and tendon injuries in Chinese from 2005 to 2019. MethodsUsing Joinpoint regression model and age-time-cohort model, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to analyze the incidence of muscle and tendon injury in Chinese from 2005 to 2019. The influence of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of muscle and tendon injury was analyzed by sex. ResultsFrom 2005 to 2019, the incidence of muscle and tendon injury in Chinese residents increased (AAPC=2.0%, P<0.05), and the AAPC of females was higher than that of males (AAPC values were 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively, P<0.05). The results of age-time-cohort model showed that the age effect, period effect and cohort effect coefficient were statistically significant. The age effect and cohort effect coefficient fluctuated, and the period effect coefficient increased continuously. The period effect is dominant in three effects. ConclusionThe incidence of muscle and tendon injuries in Chinese residents has increased rapidly. Children aged 5 to 9, people aged 20 to 29 and elderly women aged 85 to 94 are the key groups.
ObjectiveTo analyze the latest epidemiological status of breast cancer in China, trends in morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and related prognostic risk factors.MethodsData on incidence and mortality of Chinese female breast cancer, their related age-standardized rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2019, and attributable risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, and data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 34 provinces in China were obtained from literature. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trends of ASRs. The exposure levels of each attributable risk factor and the increased cancer burden were analyzed.ResultsThe incidence of breast cancer in Chinese females increased annually, from 17.07/100 000 in 1990 to 35.61/100 000 in 2019, while the mortality rate initially increased and decreased, and then exhibited an upward trend after 2016 and there was no obvious variation from 1990 (9.16/100 000) to 2019 (9.02/100 000). Among the 34 provinces of China, Shandong Province had the most serious breast cancer burden, while Macao Special Administrative Region had the lowest. Among the seven prognostic risk factors, high body mass index (BMI) contributed the most to the breast cancer burden and the exposure risk of a diet high in red meat had shown a significant increasing trend in the past 30 years. Therefore, the disease burden caused by a high red meat diet would be increasing.ConclusionsThe incidence rate of breast cancer in Chinese females is increasing. With the development of social economy and the change of people’s dietary habits, the breast cancer burden in China trends to become heavier and heavier. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct the "three early" prevention and treatment and advocate healthy and reasonable diet and living habits to reduce the burden of breast cancer to improve prognosis and quality of life.