Objective To explore the long-term trends and epidemiological characteristics of the disease burden of tetanus in China over the past 30 years and to predict its disease burden in 2050, in order to comprehensively assess the overall disease burden of tetanus in China. Methods Leveraging the methods and findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we provided a detailed description of the disease burden of tetanus in China based on key indicators such as prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, years lived with disability, and years of life lost due to premature mortality. Joinpoint regression analysis, age-period-cohort analysis, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were employed to further elucidate the epidemiological characteristics of tetanus and predict its disease burden in China by 2050. Results From 1990 to 2021, the overall disease burden of tetanus in China exhibited a significant year-by-year decline. The primary demographic group bearing the burden of tetanus in China had gradually shifted from newborns to middle-aged and elderly individuals, with males being more affected than females. Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological change was a significant factor contributing to tetanus in China, while the impacts of population and aging were relatively minor. According to predictions from the Bayesian age-period-cohort model, by 2050, only the prevalence rate was expected to slightly increase, while all other indicators were projected to decline and remain at low levels. Conclusion The disease burden of tetanus in China decreased from 1990 to 2021. In subsequent prevention efforts, newborns and middle-aged and elderly individuals should be prioritized as targets for prevention and control to maintain the disease burden of tetanus at a low level.
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden trend of non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease (NR-DMVD) in China from 1990 to 2023 and compare it with global, US, and Indian levels. MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database, data on incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NR-DMVD were extracted. Joinpoint regression, decomposition analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) were used to analyze trends, drivers, and project burden to 2040. ResultsIn 2023, China's age-standardized DALY rate (2.56/100 000) and mortality rate (0.037/100 000) for NR-DMVD were significantly lower than those in the United States, India, and globally, while its age-standardized incidence rate (10.39/100 000) and prevalence rate (126.03/100 000) showed slow increases. From 1990 to 2023, the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for China's age-standardized DALY rate and mortality rate were –2.11% [95%CI (–2.25%, –1.98%)] and –4.54% [95%CI (–4.92%, –4.16%)], respectively, while the incidence rate and prevalence rate continued to rise; India showed increasing trends in all burden indicators. Decomposition analysis indicated that population aging was the primary driver of the increase in DALYs and prevalence cases, while epidemiological improvement was the key factor that led to the reduction in the number of deaths. Joinpoint analysis revealed that China's age-standardized DALY rate and mortality rate declined most rapidly during 2000-2013. ARIMA models projected that China's prevalence rate would continue to rise and mortality rate would continue to decline through 2040. ConclusionNR-DMVD in China exhibits a dual-track pattern of "declining mortality but rising prevalence", driven by population aging. A tiered prevention and control system focusing on the elderly and high-risk male groups is needed.