LIU Junning 1 , LI Peidong 1 , LU Qilin 1 , XU Kanglin 1 , LU Ziao 1 , LEI Yong 1 , ZHU Guiying 1 , ZHANG Haibo 1,2
  • 1. Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Beijing Anzhen Nanchong Hospital of Capital Medical University & Nanchong Central Hospital, Nanchong, 637000, Sichuan, P. R. China;
  • 2. Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Beijing Anzhen Hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, P. R. China;
ZHANG Haibo, Email: Zhanghb2318@163.com
Non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease; disease burden; trend analysis; joinpoint regression; decomposition analysis; prediction
10.7507/1007-4848.202603040
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Objective To analyze the disease burden trend of non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease (NR-DMVD) in China from 1990 to 2023 and compare it with global, US, and Indian levels. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database, data on incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NR-DMVD were extracted. Joinpoint regression, decomposition analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) were used to analyze trends, drivers, and project burden to 2040. Results In 2023, China's age-standardized DALY rate (2.56/100 000) and mortality rate (0.037/100 000) for NR-DMVD were significantly lower than those in the United States, India, and globally, while its age-standardized incidence rate (10.39/100 000) and prevalence rate (126.03/100 000) showed slow increases. From 1990 to 2023, the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for China's age-standardized DALY rate and mortality rate were –2.11% [95%CI (–2.25%, –1.98%)] and –4.54% [95%CI (–4.92%, –4.16%)], respectively, while the incidence rate and prevalence rate continued to rise; India showed increasing trends in all burden indicators. Decomposition analysis indicated that population aging was the primary driver of the increase in DALYs and prevalence cases, while epidemiological improvement was the key factor that led to the reduction in the number of deaths. Joinpoint analysis revealed that China's age-standardized DALY rate and mortality rate declined most rapidly during 2000-2013. ARIMA models projected that China's prevalence rate would continue to rise and mortality rate would continue to decline through 2040. Conclusion NR-DMVD in China exhibits a dual-track pattern of "declining mortality but rising prevalence", driven by population aging. A tiered prevention and control system focusing on the elderly and high-risk male groups is needed.

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