Objective To systematically analyze the long-term trends in the disease burden and quality of care index (QCI) of pancreatitis in China from 1990 to 2023, and to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control measures as well as changes in care quality. MethodsData on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of pancreatitis were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, and the QCI was constructed. Joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort modeling (Wald test), and autoregressive integrated moving average model were employed for analysis and forecasting. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate of pancreatitis in China decreased by 32.9% (from 35.35 to 23.70 per 100 000 population), the age-standardized prevalence rate decreased by 31.3% (from 35.32 to 24.26 per 100 000 population), the age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 47.8% (from 0.81 to 0.42 per 100 000 population), the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased by 47.6% (from 25.00 to 13.10 per 100 000 population), the age-standardized years lived with disability rate decreased by 31.0% (from 2.72 to 1.87 per 100 000 population), and the age-standardized years of life lost rate decreased by 49.6% (from 22.28 to 11.23 per 100 000 population). However, the crude number of incident cases increased by 26.7% (from 363 200 to 460 400), the crude number of prevalent cases increased by 45.5% (from 353 800 to 514 800), the crude number of deaths increased by 36.2% (from 6 600 to 9 000), DALYs increased by 6.3% (from 247 000 to 262 500 person-years), years lived with disability increased by 39.5% (from 27 700 to 38 600 person-years), and years of life lost increased by 2.1% (from 219 300 to 223 900 person-years). The QCI increased from 89.58 to 93.29 [with an increase of 6.72 in females (from 87.96 to 94.68) and 1.60 in males (from 90.71 to 92.31)]. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that period effects were the primary driving factor, with significant effects on incidence (χ2=154.93, P<0.01) and prevalence (χ2=316.78, P<0.01), indicating that period effects were the main drivers of changes in disease burden. Autoregressive integrated moving average model projections indicated that by 2035, the crude prevalence rate will continue to rise to 37.06 per 100 000 population, the crude mortality rate will stabilize (approximately 0.70 per 100 000 population), the crude DALYs rate will decrease to 17.12 per 100 000 population, and the QCI will increase to 100. ConclusionsFrom 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, DALYs rate, years lived with disability rate, and years of life lost rate of pancreatitis in China all decreased significantly, but the crude numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases, and deaths continued to increase. The QCI steadily improved, with greater improvement in females than in males. Significant age and gender disparities existed in disease burden, with period effects being the main driving factor. Projections indicate a future transition towards a chronic disease pattern. Enhanced interventions targeting high-risk populations and the development of a comprehensive chronic disease management system are warranted.
ObjectiveTo analyze the trends in the disease burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) and the quality of care index (QCI) in China from 1990 to 2023, so as to provide references for targeted prevention and control. MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 (GBD 2023) were used to extract indicators including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC, and the QCI was established. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models with Wald test were adopted for trend analysis. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to predict the changing trends from 2024 to 2035. ResultsCompared with the levels in 1990, the numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases, and deaths of GBTC in China in 2023 increased by 136.6%, 213.7%, and 82.8%, respectively; while DALYs, years lived with disability, and years of life lost increased by 52.8%, 151.8%, and 51.9%, respectively. The QCI for GBTC in China increased in the overall population and by gender (female and male), with increments of 59.90, 54.82, and 63.79, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of GBTC in China all decreased from 1990 to 2023, with cumulative declines of 14.1%, 36.2%, and 40.8%, respectively; however, the age-standardized prevalence rate increased, with a cumulative increase of 19.8%. The age-period-cohort model analysis showed that age effects were statistically significant for crude incidence, crude prevalence, crude mortality, and crude DALYs rates (all P<0.01), while period and cohort effects were statistically significant only for crude DALYs rate (P<0.01). From 1990 to 2023, the crude incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of GBTC in China fluctuated upward. These metrics are projected to continue rising, reaching 3.91, 6.15, and 2.66 per 100 000, respectively, by 2035. In contrast, the crude DALYs rate trended downward and is expected to decline slightly, stabilizing at approximately 51.74 per 100 000 during 2024–2035. The QCI also followed a fluctuating upward trajectory, with a projected further increase to 88.67 by 2035, with gender differences between males and females. ConclusionsThe absolute disease burden of GBTC in China increased continuously from 1990 to 2023. All age-standardized rates declined except the age-standardized prevalence rate, while care quality improved substantially. These trends suggest that, against the backdrop of population aging, sustained efforts are needed to strengthen prevention, control and standardize diagnosis and treatment in the future.