ObjectiveTo analyze the trend of disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict its future changes. MethodsData was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2021 to analyze the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends. The BAPC model was employed to predict the future disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China. ResultsIn 2021, the standardized incidence rate, standardized prevalence, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALYs rate of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China were 44.01/100 000, 57.95/100 000, 38.98/100 000, and 878.25/100 000, all of which showed an upward trend compared to 1990, with the standardized prevalence increasing the fastest at 71.75%, followed by the standardized incidence rate, which increased by 32.93%. BAPC prediction results indicated that the standardized incidence and prevalence rates of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in the Chinese population will show an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate will show a downward trend, and the standardized DALYs rate will remain relatively stable from 2022 to 2035. The standardized incidence rate is expected to rise from 46.18/100 000 in 2022 to 50.32/100 000 in 2035, the standardized prevalence rate is expected to rise from 60.47/100 000 in 2022 to 73.49/100 000 in 2035, the standardized mortality rate is expected to decrease from 39.75/100 000 in 2022 to 36.53/100 000 in 2035, and the standardized DALYs rate is expected to rise from 903.25/100 000 in 2022 to 916.38/100 000 in 2035. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer in China showed an upward trend. Although the disease burden among the elderly and males is more prominent, the rate of increase among females in the past decade has been rapid and shows a trend towards younger ages. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken. It is predicted that the situation of tracheal and bronchial lung cancer incidence and prevalence in China will remain very serious from 2022 to 2035.
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden and temporal trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021. MethodsUtilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we assessed the burden of COPD attributable to air pollution in China through metrics including death counts, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage change (AAPC). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project future trends in COPD burden attributable to air pollution. ResultsIn 2021, China’s ASMR and ASDR for COPD attributable to air pollution were 32.57 and 533.84 per 100 000 population, respectively, exceeding global averages. From 1990 to 2021, both ASMR and ASDR exhibited significant declining trends, with AAPCs of ?5.24% (95% CI ?5.78% to ?4.70%) and ?5.28% (95% CI ?5.75% to ?4.81%), respectively. The burden intensified with advancing age and was disproportionately higher among males compared to females. BAPC projections indicate a continued decline in COPD burden from 2022 to 2035, with ASMR expected to decrease from 56.40 to 23.02 per 100 000 and ASDR from 900.14 to 408.64 per 100 000. Conclusion Despite sustained reductions in the burden of COPD attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021, with further declines anticipated through 2035, national rates remain elevated relative to global benchmarks. Male and elderly populations bear the highest burden, underscoring the urgency for targeted interventions to mitigate air pollution exposure and address health disparities in vulnerable demographics.
ObjectiveBased on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2023) database, this study aims to compare the evolution of the disease burden of ulcerative colitis (UC) globally and in China from 1990 to 2023, and to predict the trends for the period 2024 to 2035. MethodsData on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ulcerative colitis (UC), as well as their corresponding rates at both the global level and in China, were extracted to describe their changing characteristics. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Furthermore, a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied to project the disease burden from 2024 to 2035.ResultsIn 2023, the global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of UC were 2.87, 44.19, 0.45, and 13.76 per 100 000 population, respectively. Compared with 1990, the global age-standardized incidence rate slightly increased by 6.69%, while the prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates decreased by 6.81%, 2.17%, and 12.58%, respectively. From 1990 to 2023, the global age-standardized incidence rate showed an upward trend (AAPC = 0.19, 95%CI 0.16 to 0.22). The age-standardized prevalence and DALYs rates exhibited downward trends, with AAPC of ?0.19 (95%CI ?0.23 to ?0.16) and ?0.40 (95%CI ?0.59 to ?0.20), respectively (all P<0.001). The change in the age-standardized mortality rate was not significant (AAPC = ?0.10, 95%CI ?0.44 to 0.25). In China, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates in 2023 were 1.41, 9.50, 0.23, and 5.94 per 100 000 population, respectively. Compared with 1990, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates increased significantly by 88.00% and 66.08%, respectively, whereas the age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates decreased significantly by 60.35% and 58.64%, respectively. From 1990 to 2023, China’s age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates demonstrated an upward trend, with AAPC of 1.81 (95%CI 1.69 to 1.93) and 1.20 (95%CI 1.34 to 1.48), respectively (all P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates showed a downward trend, with AAPC of ?2.60 (95%CI ?3.11 to ?2.09) and ?2.58 (95%CI ?2.79 to ?2.37), respectively (allP <0.001). Notably, the magnitude of these declines in China was greater than that at the global level and across the five Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions. Projections from the BAPC model indicated that from 2024 to 2035, the global age-standardized incidence rate will remain basically stable, while the prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates will slowly decrease. In China, however, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates will continue to rise, while the mortality and DALYs rates will continue to decline. ConclusionThe mortality and DALYs rates of UC both globally and in China exhibit a downward trend, with a more pronounced decline observed in China. However, the incidence and prevalence burdens of UC in China show an increasing trend and are projected to continue rising over the next decade. Continuous monitoring is required, and more targeted prevention and control measures should be developed in light of the current situation.