ObjectiveTo analyze trends in the burden of neck pain (NP) in China and worldwide from 1990 to 2023 and to forecast future incidence. MethodsData for China and the globe were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (1990-2023), including incident cases, prevalent cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates (ASIR, ASPR, ASDR). Trends were visualized and assessed using R 4.3.1 and Joinpoint 5.1. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to forecast sex-specific ASIRs for 2024-2036. ResultsIncident cases, prevalent cases, and DALY increased markedly in both China and globally. Globally, ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR declined slightly. In China, ASIR decreased slightly, whereas ASPR and ASDR increased slightly. In 2023, the burden in China peaked at ages 55-59, and women bore a higher burden than men. Joinpoint analysis showed slow declines in ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR during 1990-2005, a rapid rise in 2005-2010, and a slow decline in 2010-2023. Based on BAPC model projections up to 2036, the ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR for males are expected to rise to 512.59, 2 224.55, and 221.60 per 100 000, respectively; whereas for females, these rates are projected to decrease to 629.27, 2 867.17, and 286.67 per 100 000, respectively. ConclusionAlthough absolute NP burden increased substantially in China and globally, age-standardized rates changed only modestly—slightly down or up depending on indicator and setting. NP burden shows clear sex and age differences, with women and those aged 55-59 being priority groups for prevention and control. Forecasts suggest that sex disparities in incidence will persist.