ObjectiveTo analyze and forecast trends in the burden of liver cancer in Yunnan Province, thereby providing a basis for the formulation of liver cancer prevention and control strategies. MethodsData on incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for liver cancer from the Global Burden of Diseases 2021 study in Yunnan Province were extracted. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends in incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), DALY rate and age-standardized DALY rate. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the trends in ASIR and ASMR from 2022–2030. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates for liver cancer in Yunnan Province increased from 5.07/100 000, 5.00/100 000, and 181.52/100 000 to 11.59/100 000, 10.39/100 000, and 316.94/100 000, respectively, with average annual percentage changes of 2.73% [95%CI (2.68%, 2.77%), P<0.001], 2.45% [95%CI (2.34%, 2.56%), P<0.001], and 1.86% [95%CI (1.77%, 1.96%), P<0.001]. ASIR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALY rate also increased from 7.20/100 000, 7.37/100 000, and 234.34/100 000 to 8.84/100 000, 8.06/100 000, and 239.26/100 000. Average annual percentage changes were 0.68% [95%CI (0.65%, 0.71%), P<0.001], 0.30% [95%CI (0.19%, 0.40%), P<0.001], and 0.11% [95%CI (0.00%, 0.22%), P=0.046]. In 2021, the incidence, mortality, and DALY burden of liver cancer among male in Yunnan Province were all higher than those among female. Incidence and mortality rates increased steadily with age, peaking in the ≥85 age group, while the number of new cases, deaths, and DALYs followed a pattern of initially rising and then declining. It was projected that by 2030, the annual number of new cases and deaths from liver cancer in Yunnan Province will rise to 6 100 and 5 100, respectively, while ASIR and ASMR will decrease to 8.72/100 000 [95%CI (5.46/100 000, 11.97/100 000)] and 6.82/100 000 [95%CI (1.74/100 000, 11.91/100 000)], respectively. ConclusionsThe burden of liver cancer in Yunnan Province continued to increase from 1990 to 2021, with men bearing a heavier burden. In its future efforts to prevent and control liver cancer, Yunnan Province should consolidate primary prevention measures while precisely targeting middle-aged and elderly populations for liver cancer screening, and examine the synergistic carcinogenic effects of emerging risk factors such as metabolic liver disease.