Methodological exploration and typical case analysis of horizon scanning for innovative health technologies_Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine

Authors：

ZHANG Xiaolu ¹ , LI Dingsiman ² , WANG Yaoling ¹ , GAO Xin ¹ , WANG Peimeng ¹ , XIAO Feiyi ¹ , LI Rui ¹ ,  LI Xue ¹ ,  GUO Wudong ¹

1. China National Health Development Research Center, Beijing 100191, P. R. China;
2. International Pharmaceutical and Medical Business School, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing 211198, P. R. China;

Corresponding?author：

LI Xue, Email: lx0204@126.com; GUO Wudong, Email: guowudong@hotmail.com

Keywords：

Innovative health technology; Horizon scanning; Technical path; Localized application

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.202603066

Video：

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Against the backdrop of the rapid development of modern medical science and technology and the continuous advancement of China's medical innovation policies, the early management of innovative health technologies is still trapped in a vicious circle of "failure to effectively identify the potential of technological value" and "unclear entry points for policy intervention". China's medical innovation model still has the characteristics of passive follow-up, lacking a continuous monitoring mechanism and attention channels for cutting-edge health technologies. Horizon scanning (HS) can systematically identify (rather than randomly discover) emerging technologies that may have potential impacts on health, medical services and/or society, as well as outdated and soon-to-be eliminated technologies. It provides a scientific basis for innovation incentives, resource allocation and the formulation of relevant policies, and is an important international tool for exploring and discovering innovative technologies. This paper systematically sorts out the conceptual connotation, development history and standardized implementation path of HS, and demonstrates the application value of HS in specific medical scenarios through typical cases. In general, HS can expand the forward-looking vision of decision-makers, improve the full-life-cycle evaluation system of health technologies, and promote the transformation of China's medical innovation from passive follow-up to leading development. For the localized application of this technology in China, it is necessary to clarify its conceptual boundaries, application scenarios and implementation paths with early health technology assessment. It is hoped that this paper can promote the application and development of HS, a new technical tool, in China's health field, and provide methodological references for subsequent related research.

Citation： ZHANG Xiaolu, LI Dingsiman, WANG Yaoling, GAO Xin, WANG Peimeng, XIAO Feiyi, LI Rui, LI Xue, GUO Wudong. Methodological exploration and typical case analysis of horizon scanning for innovative health technologies. Chinese Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine, 2026, 26(8): 986-992. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.202603066 Copy

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2. 胡苑之, 林海, 陳潔. 水平掃描在新興衛生技術評估中的發展及啟示[J]. 中國衛生資源, 2013, 16(1): 39-40.
3. 張曙欣, 陳校云, 馮力, 等. 澳大利亞和新西蘭新興衛生技術水平掃描網絡的實踐與啟示[J]. 中國衛生質量管理, 2019, 26(2): 106-109.
4. Simpson S. A toolkit for the identification and assessment of new and emerging health technologies[Z]. 2014.
5. Douw K, Vondeling H. Selection of new health technologies for assessment aimed at informing decision making: a survey among horizon scanning systems[J]. Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 2006, 22(2): 177-183.
6. Banta HD, Gelijns AC. The future and health care technology: implications of a system for early identification[J]. World Health Stat Q, 1994, 47(3-4): 140-148.
7. 李苗苗, 趙暉, 廖星, 等. 衛生技術評估和循證醫學的決策協同邏輯與實踐路徑研究[J]. 中國衛生質量管理, 2025, 32(6): 1-5.
8. 張曉路, 王耀羚, 高鑫, 等. 衛生技術評估在醫療器械全生命周期管理中的國際經驗介紹[J]. 中國醫療保險, 2025, (6): 116-124.
9. 張曉路, 李睿, 郭武棟, 等. 衛生技術評估助力中國建設多層次醫療保障體系[J]. 健康發展與政策研究, 2024, 27(2): 112-119.
10. Fasterholdt I, Kj?lhede T, Jensen LK. Commentary: reflections on defining early HTA[J]. Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 2025, 41(1): 1-4.
11. Fibla-Reixachs J. What can early HTA bring to needs-based innovation[J]. Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 2025, 41(1): e46.
12. 李知默, 唐素梅, 賴思丹, 等. Mini衛生技術評估在醫療衛生機構評估體系中的探討[J]. 中國醫學裝備, 2022, 19(5): 189-193.
13. Ehlers L, Jensen MB. Attitudes and barriers toward mini-HTA in the Danish municipalities[J]. Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 2012, 28(3): 271-277.
14. Kidholm K, Ehlers L, Korsbek L, et al. Assessment of the quality of mini-HTA[J]. Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 2009, 25(1): 42-48.
15. 李苗苗, 吳雪, 徐思敏, 等. 快速衛生技術評估的概況性綜述[J]. 中國中藥雜志, 2022, 47(12): 3125-3135.
16. CDA. Find reports-horizon scan[Z]. 2026.
17. MaHTAS. HS-horizon scanning[Z]. 2026.
18. EuroScan. The EuroScan toolkit V 2025-early awareness and alert systems[Z]. 2025.
19. CDA. CADTH health technology management program-horizon scanning products and services processes[Z]. 2026.
20. Mundy L, Merlin T L, Parrella A, et al. The Australia and New Zealand horizon scanning network[J]. Aust Health Rev, 2005, 29(4): 395-397.
21. SMC. Horizon scanning[Z]. 2026.
22. Gallego G, Bridges JFP, Flynn T, et al. Using best-worst scaling in horizon scanning for hepatocellular carcinoma technologies[J]. Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 2012, 28(3): 339-346.
23. CDA. Emerging antiviral drugs to prevent or treat influenza[Z]. 2026.
24. CDA. Emergency department overcrowding: contributing factors and interventions[Z]. 2026.
25. CDA. Health technology review-drugs health technologies health systems technologies to address wait times in the emergency department[Z]. 2026.

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