試驗序貫分析簡介_《中國循證醫學雜志》

作者：

王權 ^1,2 , 田金徽 ¹ , 李倫 ^1,2 , 何曦冉 ³ , 時春虎 ¹ ,  楊克虎 ^1,2

1. 蘭州大學基礎醫學院循證醫學中心（蘭州 730000）；2. 蘭州大學第一臨床醫學院（蘭州 730000）；3. 北京大學臨床腫瘤學院（北京 100142）;

關鍵詞：

試驗序貫分析累積Meta分析方法學

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.20130216

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試驗序貫分析（trial sequential analysis，TSA）作為累積Meta分析的一種，其主要是將序貫分析方法引入傳統的Meta分析，以解決傳統Meta分析在反復更新中出現的隨機誤差（假陽性/假陰性的結果）問題，同時也能計算得出某一個確切的結論所需要的樣本量。本文通過參閱世界范圍內已發表的文獻，著重總結介紹TSA方法的提出、基本原理、應用軟件以及當前的局限，同時依據具體的實例來說明TSA的優勢，以期吸引更多研究者關注，進而促進我國Meta分析方法學的發展。

引用本文： 王權,田金徽,李倫,何曦冉,時春虎,楊克虎. 試驗序貫分析簡介. 中國循證醫學雜志, 2013, 13(10): 1265-1268. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.20130216 復制

1.	楊克虎. 循證醫學. 北京: 人民衛生出版社, 2007:.
2.	Borm GF, Donders A. Updating meta-analyses leads to larger type I errors than publication bias. J Clin Epidemiol, 2009, 62: 825.
3.	Brok J, Thorlund K, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta-analyses. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(8): 763-769.
4.	Pereira TV, Ioannidis J. Statistically significant meta-analyses of clinical trials have modest credibility and inflated effects. J Clin Epidemiol, 2011, 64(10): 1060-1069.
5.	Pogue JM, Yusuf S. Cumulating evidence from randomized trials: utilizing sequential monitoring boundaries for cumulative meta-analysis. Control Clin Trials, 1997, 18(6): 580-593.
6.	Thorlund K, Devereaux P, Wetterslev J, et al. Can trial sequential monitoring boundaries reduce spurious inferences from meta-analyses? Int J Epidemiol, 2009, 38(1): 276-286.
7.	Trikalinos TA, Churchill R, Ferri M, et al. Effect sizes in cumulative meta-analyses of mental health randomized trials evolved over time. J Clin Epidemiol, 2004, 57(11): 1124-1130.
8.	Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Trial sequential analysis may establish when firm evidence is reached in cumulative meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(1): 64-75.
9.	Thorlund K, Imberger G, Walsh M, et al. The number of patients and events required to limit the risk of overestimation of intervention effects in meta-analysis- a simulation study. PLoS One, 2011, 6(10): e25491.
10.	Higgins JSG. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions, version 5.1.0. Updated March 2011. The Cochrane Collaboration, 2011. In Edition.
11.	Thorlund K, Engstrøm J, Wetterslev J, et al. User manual for trial sequential analysis (TSA). Copenhagen Trial Unit. Available from: http://wwwctudk/tsa/files/tsa_manualpdf. Accessed 2011.
12.	劉樹賢. 臨床流行病學(六）——序貫試驗. 疑難病雜志, 2004, 3(4): 253-255.
13.	何清坡, 蘇炳華. 成組序貫試驗的原理和方法. 現代預防醫學, 1999, 26(3): 310-312.
14.	余松林. 隨機臨床試驗中的成組序貫設計與期中分析方法. 中國臨床藥理學與治療學雜志, 1998, 3: 206-206.
15.	Demets DL, Lan K. Interim analysis: the alpha spending function approach. Stat Med, 1994, 13(13-14): 1341-1352.
16.	Higgins J, Whitehead A, Simmonds M. Sequential methods for random-effects meta-analysis. Stat Med, 2011, 30(9): 903-921.
17.	Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses. BMC Med Res Methodol, 2009, 9: 86.
18.	王權, 何曦冉, 田金徽, 等. 艾迪聯合紫杉醇和順鉑治療晚期非小細胞肺癌的 Meta 分析. 中國肺癌雜志, 2010, 13(11): 1027-1034.
19.	Wetterslev J, Engstrøm J, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis: methods and software for cumulative meta-analyses. Cochrane Methods, 2012, 14: 29-35.

1. 楊克虎. 循證醫學. 北京: 人民衛生出版社, 2007:.
2. Borm GF, Donders A. Updating meta-analyses leads to larger type I errors than publication bias. J Clin Epidemiol, 2009, 62: 825.
3. Brok J, Thorlund K, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta-analyses. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(8): 763-769.
4. Pereira TV, Ioannidis J. Statistically significant meta-analyses of clinical trials have modest credibility and inflated effects. J Clin Epidemiol, 2011, 64(10): 1060-1069.
5. Pogue JM, Yusuf S. Cumulating evidence from randomized trials: utilizing sequential monitoring boundaries for cumulative meta-analysis. Control Clin Trials, 1997, 18(6): 580-593.
6. Thorlund K, Devereaux P, Wetterslev J, et al. Can trial sequential monitoring boundaries reduce spurious inferences from meta-analyses? Int J Epidemiol, 2009, 38(1): 276-286.
7. Trikalinos TA, Churchill R, Ferri M, et al. Effect sizes in cumulative meta-analyses of mental health randomized trials evolved over time. J Clin Epidemiol, 2004, 57(11): 1124-1130.
8. Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Trial sequential analysis may establish when firm evidence is reached in cumulative meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(1): 64-75.
9. Thorlund K, Imberger G, Walsh M, et al. The number of patients and events required to limit the risk of overestimation of intervention effects in meta-analysis- a simulation study. PLoS One, 2011, 6(10): e25491.
10. Higgins JSG. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions, version 5.1.0. Updated March 2011. The Cochrane Collaboration, 2011. In Edition.
11. Thorlund K, Engstrøm J, Wetterslev J, et al. User manual for trial sequential analysis (TSA). Copenhagen Trial Unit. Available from: http://wwwctudk/tsa/files/tsa_manualpdf. Accessed 2011.
12. 劉樹賢. 臨床流行病學(六）——序貫試驗. 疑難病雜志, 2004, 3(4): 253-255.
13. 何清坡, 蘇炳華. 成組序貫試驗的原理和方法. 現代預防醫學, 1999, 26(3): 310-312.
14. 余松林. 隨機臨床試驗中的成組序貫設計與期中分析方法. 中國臨床藥理學與治療學雜志, 1998, 3: 206-206.
15. Demets DL, Lan K. Interim analysis: the alpha spending function approach. Stat Med, 1994, 13(13-14): 1341-1352.
16. Higgins J, Whitehead A, Simmonds M. Sequential methods for random-effects meta-analysis. Stat Med, 2011, 30(9): 903-921.
17. Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses. BMC Med Res Methodol, 2009, 9: 86.
18. 王權, 何曦冉, 田金徽, 等. 艾迪聯合紫杉醇和順鉑治療晚期非小細胞肺癌的 Meta 分析. 中國肺癌雜志, 2010, 13(11): 1027-1034.
19. Wetterslev J, Engstrøm J, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis: methods and software for cumulative meta-analyses. Cochrane Methods, 2012, 14: 29-35.

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試驗序貫分析簡介

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試驗序貫分析簡介

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