WANG Junxiang 1 , WANG Shuhan 1 , ZHOU Wenyu 1 , LUO Sirui 1 , QIAO Liang 2 , LIU Xiaoxia 2 , CHEN Xiaofang 1,3
  • 1. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, P. R. China;
  • 2. Office of Sichuan Cancer Prevention and Control Center, Sichuan Cancer Hospital, Chengdu 610041, P. R. China;
  • 3. Key Laboratory of Smart Healthcare and Geriatric Health Management, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, P. R. China;
CHEN Xiaofang, Email: 85456075@163.com
breast cancer; China; disease burden; risk factor; forecast
10.7507/1007-9424.202606049
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Objective  To analyze the disease burden, risk factor attribution, and trends through 2030 of female breast cancer in China from 1990 to 2023. Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, the average annual percent change (AAPC) was used to evaluate long-term trends. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to assess age, period, and cohort effects. Population attributable fractions, attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and decomposition analysis were used to evaluate the contributions of risk factors. A Bayesian APC model was used to project trends from 2024 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate of female breast cancer in China increased from 24.54 per 100 000 to 31.62 per 100 000, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 10.65 per 100 000 to 6.74 per 100 000 and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 372.92 per 100 000 to 228.43 per 100 000. The AAPCs in incidence rates were negative among women aged 15–39 years (P<0.05) and became positive after 45 years of age (P<0.05), with the largest increase observed in the 85–89 year age group (AAPC=1.72%). In the ≥95 year age group, mortality, DALY, and years of life lost rates all increased, with AAPCs of 0.58%, 0.52%, and 0.52%, respectively (P<0.05). APC analysis showed that the net drift in age-specific incidence rates was 0.315% per year (P<0.001), whereas the net drift in age-specific mortality rates was ?2.316% per year (P<0.001). In 2023, the leading attributable risk factors were high red meat intake, secondhand smoke, high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index, and low physical activity. Bayesian APC projections indicated that the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates would reach 38.91 per 100 000, 7.84 per 100 000, and 244.24 per 100 000, respectively, by 2030. Conclusions The incidence burden of female breast cancer in China continued to increase, whereas the age-standardized mortality and premature mortality burdens declined over the long term but showed a recent rebound. The disease burden increasingly shifted toward older women, and the overall burden is expected to remain substantial through 2030.

Citation： WANG Junxiang, WANG Shuhan, ZHOU Wenyu, LUO Sirui, QIAO Liang, LIU Xiaoxia, CHEN Xiaofang. Disease burden, risk factor attribution and trend prediction of female breast cancer in China from 1990 to 2023. CHINESE JOURNAL OF BASES AND CLINICS IN GENERAL SURGERY, 2026, 33(8): 1028-1037. doi: 10.7507/1007-9424.202606049 Copy

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