CHEN Zhengwei 1 , XIA Tianyang 2 , ZHU Hongliang 1 , GU Dianlei 1 , LIU Changqing 2 , ZHANG Weiguo 1 , WANG Fangqing 1 , XIE Mingran 2
  • 1. Department of Thoracic Surgery, Tongling People's Hospital, Tongling, 244000, Anhui, P. R. China;
  • 2. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China (Anhui Provincial Hospital), Hefei, 230001, P. R. China;
XIE Mingran, Email: xmr1981@ustc.edu.cn
Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; prognosis; inflammatory markers; nomogram; calibration curve
10.7507/1007-4848.202508066
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Objective  To investigate the prognostic value of preoperative inflammatory markers, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and fibrinogen-to-prealbumin ratio (FPR), for postoperative survival in patients with resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Additionally, to construct and validate a prognostic model for ESCC based on these inflammatory markers combined with TNM staging. Methods  We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with histologically confirmed ESCC who underwent surgical resection at the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China during 2017. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the optimal cut-off values for preoperative NLR, PLR, SII, and FPR. Clinicopathological characteristics were compared between patient groups with different levels of these markers. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model to identify prognostic factors. Nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were constructed using R software. The model's discrimination was assessed with ROC curves, its calibration was evaluated with calibration curves, and its clinical utility was determined by decision curve analysis (DCA). Results  A total of 224 patients who underwent surgery for ESCC were included, comprising 180 males and 44 females. The optimal preoperative cut-off values of NLR, PLR, SII, and FPR for predicting postoperative OS were 2.70, 140.34, 360.73, and 0.015, respectively. The 5-year OS and DFS rates in the high-NLR group were lower than in the low-NLR group (both P<0.001). Similarly, patients in the high-PLR group (P=0.005 and P=0.009, respectively), high-SII group (P=0.008 and P=0.018, respectively), and high-FPR group (both P<0.001) had lower 5-year OS and DFS rates compared to their low-level counterparts. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that patient age, T stage, N stage, tumor differentiation, and NLR>2.70 et al were independent prognostic factors for both OS and DFS. Based on these factors, nomograms for OS and DFS were constructed. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.966 and 0.907, respectively, and for 3- and 5-year DFS were 0.960 and 0.919, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and actual outcomes. DCA demonstrated that the models provided a positive net benefit for all patients under intervention. Conclusion  Preoperative levels of NLR, PLR, SII, and FPR are associated with the prognosis of patients with ESCC, with NLR being an independent prognostic predictor. The nomogram models, constructed based on patient age, tumor differentiation, T stage, N stage, and preoperative NLR level, can accurately predict the prognosis of patients with ESCC. These models may help guide preoperative clinical decision-making and tailor treatment and follow-up strategies.

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