Current status and trends of the disease burden of schizophrenia among young adults in China_West China Medical Journal

Authors：

CHEN Jinling ^1,2 ,  WU Zuqiang ³

1. School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, P. R. China;
2. Research Office, Foshan Nanhai District People’s Hospital, Foshan, Guangdong 528200, P. R. China;
3. Office of the President, Foshan Nanhai District People’s Hospital, Foshan, Guangdong 528200, P. R. China;

Corresponding?author：

WU Zuqiang, Email: 27218716@qq.com

Keywords：

Schizophrenia; disease burden; trend forecasts; Joinpoint regression model; autoregressive integrated moving average model

DOI：

10.7507/1002-0179.202511028

Video：

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Objective To analyze the disease burden of schizophrenia among young adults in China from 1990 to 2021, and predict its trends over the subsequent decade. Methods Using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease dataset, we selected the incident cases, prevalent cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of schizophrenia among young adults aged 15–49 in China from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression was applied to evaluate temporal trends via annual percent change and average annual percent change. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to forecast disease burden trends for the next decade. Results From 1990 to 2021, the total prevalent cases of schizophrenia among Chinese adults aged 15–49 years rose from 2.7872 million to 3.3243 million, while incident cases declined from 232 200 to 202 800. Meanwhile, DALYs attributable to schizophrenia increased from 1.8473 million person-years to 2.2031 million person-years. Compared with 1990, the 2021 standardized incidence rate (33.52/100 000 vs. 32.86/100 000), standardized prevalence rate (458.44/100 000 vs. 440.59/100 000), and standardized DALY rate (304.65/100 000 vs. 291.36/100 000) all increased. Joinpoint regression revealed significant increasing trends in the three standardized indicators, with average annual percent change of 0.07% [95% confidence interval (0.05, 0.09)], 0.14% [95% confidence interval (0.11, 0.16)], and 0.15% [95% confidence interval (0.13, 0.18)], respectively. The autoregressive integrated moving average model model projections suggested that by 2032, the incidence rate, prevalence rate and DALY rate would decrease to 29.29/100 000, 519.40/100 000 and 343.30/100 000 respectively, all remaining below the 2021 levels. Conclusions The disease burden of schizophrenia among young adults in China increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, with notable age and gender disparities. Forecasts indicate that by 2032, the incidence will keep decreasing, whereas prevalence and DALYs will continue to rise. Accordingly, schizophrenia prevention should shift focus from curbing new cases to long-term management of existing cases, and implement precise interventions based on population characteristics.

Citation： CHEN Jinling, WU Zuqiang. Current status and trends of the disease burden of schizophrenia among young adults in China. West China Medical Journal, 2026, 41(6): 947-952. doi: 10.7507/1002-0179.202511028 Copy

1.	全晨陽, 柴劍波, 趙永厚. 微生物-腸-腦軸與精神分裂癥相關性研究進展. 中華中醫藥雜志, 2022, 37(9): 5284-5287.
2.	中華醫學會精神醫學分會精神分裂癥協作組, 中華醫學會全科醫學分會. 社區應用抗精神病藥長效針劑治療精神分裂癥專家共識. 中國全科醫學, 2022, 25(29): 3587-3602.
3.	蔡穎, 李方波, 樊理詩, 等. 基于社會認知理論的家庭干預對精神分裂癥患者知識、態度、信念、行為以及疾病狀況的作用評價. 中國健康教育, 2022, 38(10): 892-897.
4.	GBD 2019 Mental Disorders Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of 12 mental disorders in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet Psychiatry, 2022, 9(2): 137-150.
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6.	GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1160-1203.
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8.	穆弘杰, 翟艷, 王杰, 等. 1990-2021 年中國居民抑郁癥疾病負擔和變化趨勢及預測. 現代預防醫學, 2025, 52(3): 406-411, 435.
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10.	馬弘, 劉津, 何燕玲, 等. 中國精神衛生服務模式改革的重要方向: 686 模式. 中國心理衛生雜志, 2011, 25(10): 725-728.
11.	Forte MF, Oliva V, De Prisco M, et al. Obstetric complications and psychopathology in schizophrenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Neurosci Biobehav Rev, 2024, 167: 105913.
12.	Stewart AJ, Patten SB, Fiest KM, et al. 10-year trends in healthcare spending among patients with Schizophrenia in Alberta, Canada. Can J Psychiatry, 2022, 67(9): 723-733.
13.	Li X, Wei N, Song J, et al. The global burden of schizophrenia and the impact of urbanization during 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Environ Res, 2023, 232: 116305.
14.	Hsiao CY, Lu HL, Tsai YF. Caregiver burden and health-related qualityof life among primary family caregivers of individuals with schizophrenia:a cross-sectional study. Qual Life Res, 2020, 29(10): 2745-2757.
15.	Luo Y, Pang L, Guo C, et al. Association of urbanicity with schizophrenia and related mortality in China: association de l’urbanicité avec la schizophrénie et la mortalité qui y est reliée en Chine. Can J Psychiatry, 2021, 66(4): 385-394.
16.	World Health Organization. Mental Health and COVID-19: Early evidence of the pandemic’s impact. Scientific brief, 2022: 1-11.
17.	袁藝琳, 伍庭芳, 杜春雨, 等. 精神分裂癥遺傳高危人群的腦電失匹配負波及時頻特征. 中國心理衛生雜志, 2023, 37(1): 1-7.
18.	Seeman MV. Sex differences in schizophrenia relevant to clinical care. Expert Rev Neurother, 2021, 21(4): 443-453.
19.	賈艷楠, 周郁秋, 孫玉靜, 等. 中國住院精神分裂癥患者攻擊行為相關因素的 meta 分析. 中國心理衛生雜志, 2024, 38(8): 654-659.
20.	孫海婭, 魏慧慧, 谷慧敏, 等. 精神障礙患者家屬的病恥感及相關因素. 中國心理衛生雜志, 2023, 37(12): 1038-1044.
21.	Phillips MR, Zhang J, Shi Q, et al. Prevalence, treatment, and associated disability of mental disorders in four provinces in China during 2001-05: an epidemiological survey. Lancet, 2009, 373(9680): 2041-2053.
22.	衛生部、財政部、國家人口和計劃生育委員會關于促進基本公共衛生服務逐步均等化的意見. 中華人民共和國衛生部公報, 2009 (9): 31-34.
23.	國務院辦公廳關于轉發衛生計生委等部門全國精神衛生工作規劃(2015-2020 年)的通知. 中華人民共和國國務院公報, 2015 (18): 15-21.
24.	羅長遠, 劉子琦, 宋弘. 經濟增速放緩對國民心理健康的影響—來自中國家戶層面的證據. 經濟學(季刊), 2023, 23(2): 604-621.
25.	張宴萍, 陳玉良, 李俊, 等. 新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情下對社區嚴重精神障礙患者管理的思考. 中華健康管理學雜志, 2020, 14(2): 110-112.

1. 全晨陽, 柴劍波, 趙永厚. 微生物-腸-腦軸與精神分裂癥相關性研究進展. 中華中醫藥雜志, 2022, 37(9): 5284-5287.
2. 中華醫學會精神醫學分會精神分裂癥協作組, 中華醫學會全科醫學分會. 社區應用抗精神病藥長效針劑治療精神分裂癥專家共識. 中國全科醫學, 2022, 25(29): 3587-3602.
3. 蔡穎, 李方波, 樊理詩, 等. 基于社會認知理論的家庭干預對精神分裂癥患者知識、態度、信念、行為以及疾病狀況的作用評價. 中國健康教育, 2022, 38(10): 892-897.
4. GBD 2019 Mental Disorders Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of 12 mental disorders in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet Psychiatry, 2022, 9(2): 137-150.
5. Huang Y, Wang Y, Wang H, et al. Prevalence of mental disorders in China: a cross-sectional epidemiological study. Lancet Psychiatry, 2019, 6(3): 211-224.
6. GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet, 2020, 396(10258): 1160-1203.
7. GBD 2021 demographics collaborators. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet, 2024, 403(10440): 1989-2056.
8. 穆弘杰, 翟艷, 王杰, 等. 1990-2021 年中國居民抑郁癥疾病負擔和變化趨勢及預測. 現代預防醫學, 2025, 52(3): 406-411, 435.
9. 中華人民共和國精神衛生法. 中華人民共和國全國人民代表大會常務委員會公報, 2012 (6): 643-652.
10. 馬弘, 劉津, 何燕玲, 等. 中國精神衛生服務模式改革的重要方向: 686 模式. 中國心理衛生雜志, 2011, 25(10): 725-728.
11. Forte MF, Oliva V, De Prisco M, et al. Obstetric complications and psychopathology in schizophrenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Neurosci Biobehav Rev, 2024, 167: 105913.
12. Stewart AJ, Patten SB, Fiest KM, et al. 10-year trends in healthcare spending among patients with Schizophrenia in Alberta, Canada. Can J Psychiatry, 2022, 67(9): 723-733.
13. Li X, Wei N, Song J, et al. The global burden of schizophrenia and the impact of urbanization during 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Environ Res, 2023, 232: 116305.
14. Hsiao CY, Lu HL, Tsai YF. Caregiver burden and health-related qualityof life among primary family caregivers of individuals with schizophrenia:a cross-sectional study. Qual Life Res, 2020, 29(10): 2745-2757.
15. Luo Y, Pang L, Guo C, et al. Association of urbanicity with schizophrenia and related mortality in China: association de l’urbanicité avec la schizophrénie et la mortalité qui y est reliée en Chine. Can J Psychiatry, 2021, 66(4): 385-394.
16. World Health Organization. Mental Health and COVID-19: Early evidence of the pandemic’s impact. Scientific brief, 2022: 1-11.
17. 袁藝琳, 伍庭芳, 杜春雨, 等. 精神分裂癥遺傳高危人群的腦電失匹配負波及時頻特征. 中國心理衛生雜志, 2023, 37(1): 1-7.
18. Seeman MV. Sex differences in schizophrenia relevant to clinical care. Expert Rev Neurother, 2021, 21(4): 443-453.
19. 賈艷楠, 周郁秋, 孫玉靜, 等. 中國住院精神分裂癥患者攻擊行為相關因素的 meta 分析. 中國心理衛生雜志, 2024, 38(8): 654-659.
20. 孫海婭, 魏慧慧, 谷慧敏, 等. 精神障礙患者家屬的病恥感及相關因素. 中國心理衛生雜志, 2023, 37(12): 1038-1044.
21. Phillips MR, Zhang J, Shi Q, et al. Prevalence, treatment, and associated disability of mental disorders in four provinces in China during 2001-05: an epidemiological survey. Lancet, 2009, 373(9680): 2041-2053.
22. 衛生部、財政部、國家人口和計劃生育委員會關于促進基本公共衛生服務逐步均等化的意見. 中華人民共和國衛生部公報, 2009 (9): 31-34.
23. 國務院辦公廳關于轉發衛生計生委等部門全國精神衛生工作規劃(2015-2020 年)的通知. 中華人民共和國國務院公報, 2015 (18): 15-21.
24. 羅長遠, 劉子琦, 宋弘. 經濟增速放緩對國民心理健康的影響—來自中國家戶層面的證據. 經濟學(季刊), 2023, 23(2): 604-621.
25. 張宴萍, 陳玉良, 李俊, 等. 新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情下對社區嚴重精神障礙患者管理的思考. 中華健康管理學雜志, 2020, 14(2): 110-112.

West China Medical Journal

Current status and trends of the disease burden of schizophrenia among young adults in China

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